Playing drums for war against Iran – an imminent attack
Ref: 0901-NASA-006 14-Jan-2009
Playing drums for war against Iran and the impending attack
WARNING: The following situation is based on strong media reports. Events may or may not happen. However, we error on the safe side. Please be at your discretion. Do not take a holiday if you are prey to a large portfolio.
News – New date or event: 2009/01/14
There are reports that
- Israel are planning mass strike on Iranian nuclear facilities with the blessing of the United States.
- Iran had previously said that if Israel or a U.S. attack Iran is going to fight against attacks on Israel and U.S. bases Middle East 32. It could be the battery of Hezbollah attacks in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine.
- Although President Bush has officially denied any support to these operations, his former hawks of the UN, Bolton said such actions are closer to reality.
- There is a growing sense that Bush wants to enter the final act of war left before January 20 2009. It will be the last act of recklessness devastation President of the United States, which will leave a legacy not only banks and economic waste, but also physical and blood body parts flying around.
- The attack can be carried out within the next five days.
- Could be a war between India and Pakistan because of the recent attitude of non-cooperation of Pakistan to deal with terrorists. If war breaks out, the attention to damage to refineries in Gujarat Modi hate Pakistani intelligence, Prime Minister of Gujarat.
- In short, the Middle East will be hot bed war at the front of many.
- ATTENTION dogs of war
Analysis
Logically, a session and the departure of president is not supposed to become instruments of war, but President Bush, a Republican and vice chairman of the War Monger Dick Cheney, want to help the war industry as they can during the final stage before Obama takes over. They want to leave a legacy for the president Obama will be more choice but to adapt to war and will be dictated by what is left behind.
This will be a foreign policy issue to be managed by another hawk Hillary Clinton. It is deep in debt after losing the Democratic primary. They say he has a debt of over U.S. $ 7 million. The only way you can debt relief is to appease the war industry in the U.S. they need to know sudden calm after desperate in Iraq and Obama's stated intention to leave Iraq as soon as possible.
There is more logic in the above reports. recent Israeli incursion into Gaza's largest, since 1967, has been an exercise land preparation and practice of launching a massive attack on Iran. Israel has killed more than 800 people and has lost only five, three of them in their own friendly fire which clearly shows the disproportionate use of force. The attack was also intended to encourage Iran to action that can justify the war later. Iran has so far avoided these whispers.
If war erupts, there will be chaos all wholesale cases.
1. Oil prices suddenly pushed to a very high level.
2. At the end of February oil expire on or about January 19, so that high oil prices a real possibility.
3. Gold and silver can be increased by U.S. $ falls as a result. Of course, the forces are at play to support the dollar and dissemination of its acceptance as a "safe haven" in times of war.
4. Government of India, who wanted to reduce oil prices may also have to wait for the announcement or may change abruptly U-turn in its policy proposal.
5. Oil producers such as ONGC may increase
6. Refineries may decrease due to shrinking margins again. Reliance Industries have to extend the closure of petrol pump stations more time in a row.
7. Indian Government can not be forced to suspend any announcement on the lifting of price controls on gasoline.
8. The fear of inflation and deflation through a recession will increase. Interest rates also Libor can revitalize before
9. Rupee may weaken to 2% 3% due to oil prices and lower exports due to the saga involving Satyam the software industry revenues. This will be a time to send funds to India for the sudden loss.
Strategy
1. Airline To keep stock away yet.
2. Stay away from large stocks of automotive value. Take this opportunity to build position Ashok Leyland
3. While refiners may suffer, the stocks are beaten to it is perhaps time that you can see the lower level. These stocks, especially as a public HPLC, BPCL and IOC are signs of resistance. War-related weakness opportunity to provide good buy.
4. To construct the energy situation in Cairns slowly. The company can start production at the right time – the rise in Oil prices again. Watch against buying the correction. The company can start production in June 2009
5. Gas stocks could rise again. To establish the position and Gail Petronet
6. Metal stocks may be due to higher inflation. Commodities may up a bit.
7. Currency Australia can also win because the increase in inventories of metals and raw materials.
Interest Rates 8. can not increase due to rising inflation. Government is in a dilemma – to go here or there. So if interest rates rise, the recession and aggravate if you do nothing, inflation will increase your head close to the election.
9. Major blue chips and finance stocks can not go to southern or less.
10. Companies HLiver cash rich, the ITC can do better.
11. It is possible that a good correction in mid-cap after a strong recovery during the month or s.
12. Avoid banks and financial stocks. We can see the bad news from this sector in the United States during the earnings season for the quarter December 8.
Actions
1. Reduce by 60% position in stocks of non-core than the previous
2. If the war does not take place before Bush leaves the house Blanche, you can re-enter
3. gas stocks are the best in the world. In India, Petronet, GSPL and Gail are the best
4. Note that the situation may have two consequences. Market risk has risen. So do not try to become rich in three days.
Anil Selarka – Hong Kong
Blog: http://anilselarka.com
Ref: NASA – 0901-006 of 09.01.1914
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